December 20, 2005
National Business Review
Absent changes in the way things are done and increased 
awareness at the local level, as many as 10,000 New Zealanders could be killed by tsunami, the government said today, noting that the risk was much higher than had been previously thought.
The figures do not take vacationers into account -- something that could raise the toll significantly if tsunami struck during a period when seaside populations are greatly increased.
The news came as two government-commissioned reports were released today by Civil Defence Minister Rick Barker.
The reports were commissioned following last year's devastating Boxing Day tsunami.
Government officials then said New Zealand would have adequate warning of most tsunami threats, but that some from seismic activity close to the shoreline would strike too quickly for any effective warning.
Today's reports indicate the government may have been optimistic in its early projections.
Mr Barker said the reports show the New Zealand tsunami risk is similar to earthquake risk.
"The two reports gather together all we know about the tsunami threat. It's bigger than we had thought, but effective preparation by New Zealanders can greatly reduce the risk of death or injury," said Mr Barker.
The reports, commissioned by the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management from the government-owned research agency GNS Science, note that preparedness can reduce the risk of death and injury from tsunami by 90-95 per cent.
Part of the problem facing today's New Zealand is the build up of populations along the sea in high risk areas, the reports say.
"New Zealand has some experience of tsunami in the historical past, but few lives have been lost and damage to property and infrastructure has been modest. However, the large historical tsunami events that impacted New Zealand occurred when shoreline development was very modest by comparison with the present, so the fragility is now much greater," according to one report.
With "worst case" scenarios modelled as "500 year events" the reports show that the gravest dangers face Gisborne, where as many as 2,100 could die if a major tsunami struck without warning.
In the Wellington region, the death toll could pass 1,600, and in Christchurch, 1,500.
Napier/Hastings is another high risk region, with a death toll projection of up to 1,300.
Mr Barker says work is underway to improve monitoring for tsunami, so there will be better alerts and more warning time for people to move to safety.
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