Latest Seasonal Assessment - Abnormally dry weather through the first half of December has led to expanding drought across parts of the Southwest and southern Plains, and prospects look dim for much improvement into the first quarter of the new year. With the latest official precipitation outlook for January-March showing the odds tilting toward the dry side, the risks for drought expansion have increased from Arizona eastward through New Mexico and northern Texas. Some improvement remains on tap for southern and eastern Texas, as well as other parts of the southern Mississippi Valley, but drought should largely persist across Oklahoma, northern Texas and western Arkansas. More significant improvement is indicated for Louisiana and Tennessee thanks largely to heavy thunderstorms falling near the start of the Outlook period in mid-December. Some improvement is also anticipated for the drought affecting Kentucky and southern Ohio, with better odds for improvement for the lingering drought area in North Carolina. Drought should persist in Iowa and Illinois, but some improvement is on the horizon for southern Wisconsin and Michigan. Little change in the drought situation is expected from eastern Wyoming into South Dakota and Nebraska, but some improvement is indicated for the Northwest and northern Rockies.
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