Expected Earthquake, Volcanic or Storm Activity for the Next 1 to 5 Days
Are YOU Prepared?
September 4, 2005
By Stan Deyo
Alert: Earthquake Numbers Drop Dramatically
Global quakes with magnitudes greater than 4.0 for the last 7 days are at 229. This is LOW which means seismic pressures are building.
More importantly, there have been 831 quakes in California over the past week. It has been extremely active along the San Andreas Fault.
A couple of minor but shallow quakes have occurred at the bottom edge of the Juan de Fuca Plate, just off-shore from Eureka, CA. This same fault line is part of the Mendocino Fracture Zone extending out into the Pacific 2000 miles. Because of the flurries of earthquakes in California over the last 10 days and the pressure build up where the Mendocino Fracture Zone becomes the San Andreas Fault at Eureka (see white arrow on today's map), we should expect approximately a Richter 6, somewhere between Eureka and San Francisco within the next 5 days.
This could indicate seismic pressures are not being released as much as normal. The 7-day average for the global number of quakes last year was 480. This year the 7-day average is at 325. There is a significant drop of over 33% in the global number this year over last year's number.
As the NEIC/USGS data I just quoted are primarily for the number of quakes on the North and South American side of the globe as opposed to the European side, I suspect that a huge amount of seismic pressure is building again somewhere along the Pacific Ring of Fire. The method I use daily to forecast major seismic events of Richter 5.0 or better has not shown any sign of pressure buildup that could explain the lack of quakes (temblors) this year.... this month... this last seven days. I am sure something is building somewhere near the Ring of Fire but I can only see small thermal signs.
I have seen some large thermal signs waxing and waning around Japan and in between China and Japan for over 10 days. This 6.2 quake may just be the beginning of more stress releases on the Northeastern Ring of Fire.
I advise making sure you have adequate emergency food, water, medicines, first aid kit, radio and flashlight (among other items suggested by FEMA, USGS and ourselves on our "Preparedness" site (see menu bar to the left).
Preparing for "the Big One" is often a joke in the West Coast communities.... however, we urge you to "Dare to Prepare" in spite of the jibes...
Stan's analysis shows areas of possible earthquake or volcanic activity, or extreme storm conditions for the next 1 to 5 days. Pay particular attention to areas marked by white circles. The continuous yellow line denotes plate tectonic boundaries as well as the Ring of Fire. Go to the raw data map where it is easier to see the areas of concern. Go to Stan's earthquake map archives.
DEYO NOTES: For earthquake maps, see the USGS "shake maps" (click anywhere on the global map for a closer view). For quakes USGS may not list, go to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center's map and scroll to the bottom of the page for a global view. You can compare these maps for the next 5 days to Stan's NCODA maps, to see the hits of his seismic target zones (white circles).
Earthquake lists can viewed at EMCS and at USGS.
Ecuador's Geophysics Institute at the National Polytechnic School, does not list quakes on a daily basis as does the USGS and other entities, but when there are significant events, they post them in PDFs.
Disclaimer: Some of the forecast stress areas can be in error up to 30% due to cloud cover variations and false signals from buoys.