Expected Earthquake, Volcanic or Storm Activity for the Next 1 to 5 Days
Are YOU Prepared?
September 11, 2005
By Stan Deyo
There are a number of small seismic pressure ares today. The worst is at Sumatra along the fault line that released the Richter 9.0 last December.
Due to the time at which the Navy publishes its NCODA maps daily, the Sumatra seismic event may have already happened earlier today before we got the map data. There was a Richter 5.9 there earlier today.
HOWEVER, IF that quake was NOT what we see building on the map today, then an even larger quake may be about to hit Sumatra in the next three days or less. The thermal signal there is big enough to make a quake of about Richter 7.0.
So for folks in the region if a quake of this magnitude occurs in the time frame I have suggested above, you will need to assume a small tsunami will follow.
South island of New Zealand looks like it could have a Richter 4+ near the southern end of the Island in the next three days.
Fiji also looks like it could have a Richter 5+ in the next three days.
Japan looks clear for now.
As for the West Coast of America, I gave an 8-week seismic red alert at the beginning of August and we are just about through that time frame with no major quakes. We advise that you visit this page daily until the end of September to see if the threat reappears. For now, I do not see an immediate threat to the US west Coast.
These are the major observations for today.
NOTE: In order to see the earthquake "hits", you'll need to check quakes listings for the next 5 days.
Stan's analysis shows areas of possible earthquake or volcanic activity, or extreme storm conditions for the next 1 to 5 days. Pay particular attention to areas marked by white circles. The continuous yellow line denotes plate tectonic boundaries as well as the Ring of Fire. Go to the raw data map where it is easier to see the areas of concern. Go to Stan's earthquake map archives.
NEW FEATURE: The red circles are quakes predicted 5 days ago, designated with a "4", within Stan's current window. Light red circles are quakes predicted 4 days and so on up through white circles which are today's quakes for the current window.
DEYO NOTES: For earthquake maps, see the USGS "shake maps" (click anywhere on the global map for a closer view). For quakes USGS may not list, go to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center's map and scroll to the bottom of the page for a global view. You can compare these maps for the next 5 days to Stan's NCODA maps, to see the hits of his seismic target zones (white circles).
Earthquake lists can viewed at EMCS and at USGS.
Ecuador's Geophysics Institute at the National Polytechnic School, does not list quakes on a daily basis as does the USGS and other entities, but when there are significant events, they post them in PDFs.
Disclaimer: Some of the forecast stress areas can be in error up to 30% due to cloud cover variations and false signals from buoys.