Expected Earthquake, Volcanic or Storm Activity for the Next 1 to 5 Days
Are YOU Prepared?
September 14, 2005
By Stan Deyo
ALERT FOR THE ENTIRE INDIAN OCEAN COMMUNITY
For the last five days I've seen seismic pressure signals all around the eastern and northern plate boundaries of the Australian-Indian Tectonic Plate. You can see my warning circles as shades of red for the four days prior to today's circles which are in white. Today it became obvious that these signals indicate a major plate stress similar to the one that caused that Richter 9.+ in Sumatra last year. I really hope the seismic stresses don't release in such a catastrophic way but the signals are there and I cannot in good conscience avoid warning of the possibilities.
The stress I am seeing in the Indian Ocean today is indeed alarming. I have drawn a white outline along the stress zone's center line. As you can see, the yellow and blue signals which sit on opposite sides of a stressed fault line have a "dark line" between them all the way down to join up with the three tectonic plate boundaries (yellow lines) that meet there.
The plates which meet there are: the Australian-Indian, the African and the Antarctic. If the line in the white area I have marked today splits apart, it would break the Australian-Indian plate into two plates: The Australian and the Indian. The resulting tsunamis and earthquakes could be utterly devastating to all the coastal communities around the Indian Ocean.
The "dark line" is about 2200 miles in length. It is as long - if not longer - than the seismic signal I saw along the Mendocino Ridge off the California coast on the 2nd of August this year. This Indian Ocean stress line is located at the antipodes (exact opposite side of the Earth) of another three-plate junction in the South Pacific (see the yellow lines where they meet to form a small yellow circle off the west coast of Chile). The three plates that form this junction are: the Nazca, the Pacific and the Antarctic - the same plate that joins to the junction of the Australian-Indian and African plates where the "dark line" is joined today.
If a significant seismic event occurs along this "dark line" one type of the resulting shock waves could travel along the Antarctic plate boundary to the Australian-Indian plate and then along the Antarctic plate boundary to the Pacific Plate upwards to the West coast of North America.... A second type of ring shock wave could also spread out in a circle from any major seismic release near that junction in the Indian Ocean. That ring of shock would widen out like a splash in a ball of Jell-O as it headed for the other side of the Earth. It would then shrink back to a smaller and smaller ring until it reached the Pacific-Nazca-Antarctic junction. When this shock wave converged there it would transmit a huge portion of the event that started the wave.
Either or both of these shock waves could set into motion a series of subsequent seismic and volcanic events along the western coasts of both the Americas.
This warning is academic until we see the "dark line" converted to a serious seismic event or events.
I am now extending the advisory for Northern Sumatra is to the 19th of September for obvious reasons.
I do not see direct threat to the US West Coast. If the Indian Ocean seismic event(s) occur then The west coast of the US could be indirectly threatened.
Stan's analysis shows areas of possible earthquake or volcanic activity, or extreme storm conditions for the next 1 to 5 days. Pay particular attention to areas marked by white circles. The continuous yellow line denotes plate tectonic boundaries as well as the Ring of Fire. Go to the raw data map where it is easier to see the areas of concern. Go to Stan's earthquake map archives.
NEW FEATURE: The red circles are quakes predicted 5 days ago, designated with a "4", within Stan's current window. Light red circles are quakes predicted 4 days and so on up through white circles which are today's quakes for the current window.
DEYO NOTES: For earthquake maps, see the USGS "shake maps" (click anywhere on the global map for a closer view). For quakes USGS may not list, go to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center's map and scroll to the bottom of the page for a global view. You can compare these maps for the next 5 days to Stan's NCODA maps, to see the hits of his seismic target zones (white circles).
Earthquake lists can viewed at EMCS and at USGS.
Ecuador's Geophysics Institute at the National Polytechnic School, does not list quakes on a daily basis as does the USGS and other entities, but when there are significant events, they post them in PDFs.
Disclaimer: Some of the forecast stress areas can be in error up to 30% due to cloud cover variations and false signals from buoys.