Expected Earthquake, Volcanic or Storm Activity for the Next 1 to 5 Days
Are YOU Prepared?
October 17, 2005
By Stan Deyo
17th October NCODA ANALYSIS
USA: Virginia and northward along the sea coast to Nova Scotia is showing an unusual cooling anomaly which has no matching thermal increase that I can see. However, it is so unusual to see such a rapid cooling pattern follow the sub-oceanic ridge along the coast there that I am drawing attention to it. If there is a corresponding rapid heating pattern inland so far that I can't see it, then the New Madrid might be stressing -but that would only be if this cooling thermal signal is not just a weather anomaly.
Kamchatka Region: Eastern shoreline and NW Bering Sea medium seismic signal.
East Timor: Showing medium seismic signal.
Australia: Cape York showing small thermal signal - possibly storm related. Tasmania and Kangaroo Island region showing small seismic signals.
The Solomons: Small to medium thermal signal - possibly storm related.
Samoa: Eastern side showing small thermal signal - possibly storm related.
New Zealand: Northeast North Island showing small seismic signal.
Ecuador/Peru: Medium seismic signal.
Honduras: Western side showing medium seismic signal.
Mexico: Western side near Guadalajara showing small thermal signal - possibly storm related.
Africa: Libya showing small seismic signal.
India/Sri Lanka: Still showing medium thermal signal - possibly storm related.
Nicobar Islands: medium seismic signal.
The interesting spots to watch are along the Ring of Fire from Peru to California. As I was preparing the maps for today El Salvador put up an imminent volcano report and Nicaragua had a 5.7 quake.... BEFORE I could even get the maps finished! I believe these may be precursor events indicating a significant increase in energy releases along the western coastlines of the Americas. The seismic signal over Honduras is right along a tectonic plat border - which is a bad place to see such data.
New Zealand continues to show small to medium thermal signals which are mostly in the North Island. White Island is off the northern shore and is known as the key to the major volcanoes of North Island. It is in the last three warning circles I have drawn on the Island.
With Kamchatka awakening, there are three points around the Ring of Fire that are active.... This is cause for close attention to all seismic precursor events that precede large seismic events.
Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo: The coastal waters off the US western coast are unusually quiet as far as thermal signals. This is a concern as well. We wait.....
I could not see what was causing these thermal signals on the east and west coasts of Africa until today. The fault line ridge runs from the Atlantic deep into Africa - right to the Goma Volcano area on the border to Rwanda and the Republic of Congo and them down to Mozambique (where there no known volcanoes - yet. This ridge was showing thermal signs across the southern tip of Africa.....SEE WARNINGS 12-14 maps for both sides of southern Africa.
Stan's analysis shows areas of possible earthquake or volcanic activity, or extreme storm conditions for the next 1 to 5 days. Pay particular attention to areas marked by white circles. The continuous yellow line denotes plate tectonic boundaries as well as the Ring of Fire. Go to the raw data map where it is easier to see the areas of concern. Go to Stan's earthquake map archives.
NEW FEATURE: The circles in varying shades of red are quake prediction zones Stan made from 1 to 4 days ago - with dark red being 1 day ago and the lightest red being 4 days ago. White circles are Stan's prediction zones for today. Tomorrow these white circles will become dark red and will get lighter as each day passes until they are removed.
These circles indicate the stresses in an area and warn of a probable quake in an area. The areas do not always convert to a quake. When a quake does occur and has been in or fairly close to the outer radius of a circle I have drawn over a given fault zone area then it is counted as a "hit". When stress signals go into a large land mass I have to estimate the radius of the circle and the vector to the nearest major fault on the land mass.
DEYO NOTES: For earthquake maps, see the USGS "shake maps" (click anywhere on the global map for a closer view). For quakes USGS may not list, go to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center's map and scroll to the bottom of the page for a global view. You can compare these maps for the next 5 days to Stan's NCODA maps, to see the hits of his seismic target zones (white circles).
Earthquake lists can viewed at EMCS and at USGS.
Ecuador's Geophysics Institute at the National Polytechnic School, does not list quakes on a daily basis as does the USGS and other entities, but when there are significant events, they post them in PDFs.
Disclaimer: Some of the forecast stress areas can be in error up to 30% due to cloud cover variations and false signals from buoys.