Expected Earthquake, Volcanic or Storm Activity for the Next 1 to 5 Days
Are YOU Prepared?
October 23, 2005
By Stan Deyo
23rd October NCODA ANALYSIS
USA: The Juan de Fuca plate is showing a small seismic signal at the Medoncino end. Also offshore from San Diego a small to medium signal is present. Nome, Alaska showing small seismic signal.
Japan: Offshore from Yokohama showing small seismic signal.
New Guinea: tectonic boundary showing medium seismic signal. It could indicate a volcanic eruption and or seismic event in the next few days.
Vanuatu, Fiji, West Samoa: All showing small to medium seismic signals.
New Zealand: South Island near Mt. Cook area showing small to medium seismic signal. Northeast North Island near Hastings showing small to medium seismic signal.
Galapagos Island: Showing medium to strong seismic and/or volcanic signal. West of the Island at the three plate junction showing small seismic signal.
Chile: Near Taitao Peninsula showing a small seismic signal.
The southwestern Ring of Fire region is still showing significant seismic stresses today as are the southern tip of the Juan de Fuca, Japan and the Galapagos Island region. The other tectonic border signals from yesterday have disappeared as fast as they appeared. So, the major events today focus on the entire Australian Plate on the eastern and north eastern sides.
For an explanation of how these maps are produced, please see this area.
Stan's analysis shows areas of possible earthquake or volcanic activity, or extreme storm conditions for the next 1 to 5 days. Pay particular attention to areas marked by white circles. The continuous yellow line denotes plate tectonic boundaries as well as the Ring of Fire. Go to the raw data map where it is easier to see the areas of concern. Go to Stan's earthquake map archives.
NEW FEATURE: The circles in varying shades of red are quake prediction zones Stan made from 1 to 4 days ago - with dark red being 1 day ago and the lightest red being 4 days ago. White circles are Stan's prediction zones for today. Tomorrow these white circles will become dark red and will get lighter as each day passes until they are removed.
These circles indicate the stresses in an area and warn of a probable quake in an area. The areas do not always convert to a quake. When a quake does occur and has been in or fairly close to the outer radius of a circle I have drawn over a given fault zone area then it is counted as a "hit". When stress signals go into a large land mass I have to estimate the radius of the circle and the vector to the nearest major fault on the land mass.
DEYO NOTES: For earthquake maps, see the USGS "shake maps" (click anywhere on the global map for a closer view). For quakes USGS may not list, go to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center's map and scroll to the bottom of the page for a global view. You can compare these maps for the next 5 days to Stan's NCODA maps, to see the hits of his seismic target zones (white circles).
Earthquake lists can viewed at EMCS and at USGS.
Ecuador's Geophysics Institute at the National Polytechnic School, does not list quakes on a daily basis as does the USGS and other entities, but when there are significant events, they post them in PDFs.
Disclaimer: Some of the forecast stress areas can be in error up to 30% due to cloud cover variations and false signals from buoys.