Expected Earthquake, Volcanic or Storm Activity for the Next 1 to 5 Days
Are YOU Prepared?
November 24, 2005
By Stan Deyo
New Zealand: Showing small seismic signal near the Cook Strait and North tip of South Island
Fiji: Medium strength seismic signal.
Mexico: On Guatemala Border showing small seismic signal.
Peru: Ecuador border region showing medium strength seismic signal.
Pakistan: Afghanistan border region (so far inland that it is difficult to estimate) possible medium strength seismic event showing.
Jakarta: SW and offshore showing small to medium strength seismic signal.
Summary: SW portion of Pacific RIng of Fire showing some stress this week. The small plate between southern Mexico and Ecuador is showing stresses on all sides this week as well. From Madagascar to Perth in the southern Indian Ocean showing fleeting stresses this week.
Note: Regions with deep quakes will not always show up on my system. I missed a large quake in the Kyushu region earlier this week because no signal showed at all. We can only guess that this was due to the depth of the slip.
Please note that when no text summary is provided, look for circles on the maps. These always indicate my areas of concern.
Summaries are written as time permits. These NCODA Earthquake Maps are a free service outside of the normal workday and depending on the data, they may require several hours to analyze. Some days it simply is not possible to provide an additional written summary. Stan Deyo
For an explanation of how these maps are produced, please see this area.
Stan's analysis shows areas of possible earthquake or volcanic activity, or extreme storm conditions for the next 1 to 5 days. Pay particular attention to areas marked by white circles. The continuous yellow line denotes plate tectonic boundaries as well as the Ring of Fire. Go to the raw data map where it is easier to see the areas of concern. Go to Stan's earthquake map archives.
NEW FEATURE: The circles in varying shades of red are quake prediction zones Stan made from 1 to 4 days ago - with dark red being 1 day ago and the lightest red being 4 days ago. White circles are Stan's prediction zones for today. Tomorrow these white circles will become dark red and will get lighter as each day passes until they are removed.
These circles indicate the stresses in an area and warn of a probable quake in an area. The areas do not always convert to a quake. When a quake does occur and has been in or fairly close to the outer radius of a circle I have drawn over a given fault zone area then it is counted as a "hit". When stress signals go into a large land mass I have to estimate the radius of the circle and the vector to the nearest major fault on the land mass.
DEYO NOTES: For earthquake maps, see the USGS "shake maps" (click anywhere on the global map for a closer view). For quakes USGS may not list, go to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center's map and scroll to the bottom of the page for a global view. You can compare these maps for the next 5 days to Stan's NCODA maps, to see the hits of his seismic target zones (white circles).
Earthquake lists can viewed at EMCS and at USGS.
Ecuador's Geophysics Institute at the National Polytechnic School, does not list quakes on a daily basis as does the USGS and other entities, but when there are significant events, they post them in PDFs.
Disclaimer: Some of the forecast stress areas can be in error up to 30% due to cloud cover variations and false signals from buoys.